Post DeMo Narrative -4

The article titled "Who will pay for the sops" by Prof Arun Kumar of Institute of Social Sciences Delhi, (IE, 13th Feb 2019) shines light on the state of economy that helps connect many dots on the events of last few years. 

Almost nil data on the Unorganised Sectors of our economy explains the current buoyant-economy narrative of NaMo lead GoI. 

Prof computes from many private surveys that this part of the economy possible grew at 1%. There was no alarm as most of taxes are paid by organised sector. 

The NaMo game plan in DeMo adventure was then intuitively sensed; it is now clarified. He played the Janta by posing as Corruption Fighter, creating the spin of a very decisive and strong leader. 

Stuffing Banks with Cash for onward lending to Organised Sector and hoping that its growth (duly measurable) will raise his/BJP's electoral fortunes. And on top of that it immobilized the Opposition parties just before the crucial UP and Punjab Assembly Elections. 

The minor blip in growth figures was a small price to pay. Hats -Off to NaMo, again. 

But the severity of political backlash from down under was not computed. NaMo got scared /greedy and started playing with GoI institutions to massage the data. 

We are in for some interesting times 

(Please see my blog postings of Nov-Dec 2016)   

Prohibition and Other Vices

Prohibition in Bihar 
Addiction to Liquor is a tragedy but criminalizing its use converts that tragedy into disaster, both for users and society. (paraphrased - Milton Friedman)

Sh Nitish Kumar has made these women very happy by enforcing Prohibition.  Patna High Court has struck down the law, being unconstitutional.  

We must remember that Liquor Prohibition leads to rise of organised crime, spurious liquor and smuggling. And a disaster is waiting to happen. 
One does not wish but many deaths are waiting to happen. Like this one :  

In principle, Prohibitions and bans don't work in a democracy, more so in a loosely administered, raucous one like ours.

The Govt must aim to create decent environment and culture around drinking and "Madhushala" such that the excesses that upset the women are avoided. And the revenue from the Liquor Industry is gainfully utilized for the sorely needed Development Works in the state. 

A way forward :

1)  Allow IMFL shops and bars in Hotels and Restaurants

a) aids tourism, one of the best employment generation industry.

b) The Bihar may put additional levy ensuring 10% higher prices than neighboring states.

c) Set standards and allow anyone who wants to open a bar.

2) Allow locally brewed liquor in licensed shops only :

a) Such liquor shops must have decent hygienic friendly environment for socializing, with eats

b) Socializing and eating together reduces the excesses and guilt associated with drinking liquors.

c) The Local women's groups be involved with the staff of local de-addition centers to moderate the drinking

3) Ensure certification of local liquors - at the brewery level.  

4) Use such revenue to establish certification centers in each district /Tehsil. (Again quality jobs for the young)

5) The Police may be provided with physical resources : vehicles, breathalyzers etc

6) Fund local level meetings of women and shop owners, certification centre employees and "Nashabandi Police" (adds jobs ) Now that GST is being implemented Excise officials dealing with Liquor may be re-trained.

This liquor ecosystem can create 100,000 jobs in tourism, police, certification and regulation.

    And make available a surplus of Rs 4000 Cr+ for the state